US sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC are expected to compel Indian refiners to shift to supplies from West Asia and other regions that do not offer discounts, thereby raising India’s crude import bill, analysts said.
According to Prashant Vasisht, senior vice president and co-group head at Icra Ltd, these sanctioned companies account for nearly 60% of India’s Russian oil imports. He noted that while Indian refiners can replace Russian supplies with crude from other markets, the import cost will rise. Substituting discounted Russian oil with market-priced crude could increase India’s oil import bill by around 2%, or about $2.7 billion, based on FY25’s $137 billion import value.
Russia, India’s top crude supplier since FY23, contributes roughly 35% of the nation’s total imports. With the US setting a November 21 deadline to end transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil, Russian supplies—around 1 million barrels per day—are likely to decline sharply. Experts said refiners will offset this through spot market purchases, though without the $2–4 per barrel discounts previously enjoyed.
