Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by approximately 70% as of Monday, March 2, 2026, as the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran renders the world’s most vital oil artery virtually impassable for commercial shipping. Data from Lloyd’s List and Kpler reveal a staggering drop in transit volumes; while the chokepoint typically handles 20 million barrels of oil per day, the flow has been reduced to a trickle following a series of maritime attacks and aggressive warnings from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Over 200 massive tankers and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers have reportedly dropped anchor in open waters outside the strait, refusing to enter the corridor after a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker was struck by a drone boat in the Gulf of Oman, resulting in the tragic death of an Indian mariner.
The crisis, which was triggered by joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure and the subsequent death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has created what analysts call a “de facto closure.” While Tehran has not officially declared a physical blockade, the withdrawal of war-risk insurance and the issuance of cancellation notices by major insurers have achieved the same result, forcing global shipping giants like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend all transits. This disruption hits Asian economies the hardest, as China, India, Japan, and South Korea rely on the strait for over 80% of their crude imports. With 20% of the world’s daily oil supply now stranded, Brent crude prices have surged toward $80 per barrel, with experts warning that a prolonged halt could push prices past the $100 mark, triggering a global inflationary shock and severe energy deficits across Europe and the Indo-Pacific.
